I still remember the excitement building up to the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery—the kind of anticipation that only basketball fans truly understand. Having followed international basketball for years, particularly players who developed under coaches like Rajko Toroman, I couldn't help but draw parallels between strategic team-building in the NBA and the developmental journeys of players like those in Toroman's system. Remember that point guard who worked under Toroman during the Stankovic Cup? That kind of patient development mirrors what some lottery-bound NBA teams needed—a steady hand to guide their futures.
The 2019 lottery odds were particularly fascinating because they introduced the new flattened odds system, which was supposed to reduce tanking incentives. Let me be honest—I've never been a fan of teams blatantly losing games to improve their draft position, so I welcomed this change. Under the new rules, the three worst teams each had a 14% chance at the top pick, compared to the previous system where the worst team had 25% odds. That's a massive shift that immediately leveled the playing field. For teams like the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Phoenix Suns—who all finished with identical 14% odds—this meant their futures could swing dramatically based on pure luck rather than strategic losing.
Looking at the actual results, the Pelicans' 6% odds turning into the first overall pick was arguably the biggest storyline. I'll admit—when the Pelicans landed Zion Williamson, my immediate thought was how this would impact Anthony Davis' future with the team. As we now know, it didn't keep Davis in New Orleans, but getting Williamson certainly softened that blow. The Grizzlies jumping from projected 8th to 2nd with their 6.3% odds was another stunner—exactly the kind of lottery magic that keeps fans glued to their screens every May.
What many casual observers don't realize is how these odds calculations work behind the scenes. The NBA uses a combination of record-based probability and the actual ping pong ball combinations—there are 1,001 possible combinations, with 1,000 actually used in the drawing. The team with the worst record gets 140 of those combinations, second-worst gets 135, and so forth down to the 14th team with just 5 combinations. This system creates those dramatic moments we saw in 2019 where teams like the Lakers, who had just 2% odds, managed to jump into the top four.
The international basketball connection here is interesting to me. Having watched players develop under coaches like Toroman—remember that guard who later shared backcourt duties with Jimmy Alapag during the 2010 Asian Games and 2011 FIBA Asia Championship?—I see similarities in how NBA teams approach rebuilding. Some organizations, like the Memphis Grizzlies who landed Ja Morant with their surprise second pick, understood the value of gradual development rather than rushing the process. Meanwhile, teams like the Knicks, who fell to third despite having the worst record, demonstrated that there are no guarantees in this system.
From my perspective, the 2019 lottery particularly hurt the Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns, who both fell in the order despite poor records. The Bulls dropped from 3rd to 7th, while Phoenix fell from 2nd to 6th—these were devastating outcomes for franchises desperately needing franchise-altering talent. Meanwhile, the Pelicans and Grizzlies essentially accelerated their rebuilds overnight. I've always believed that the draft lottery, while imperfect, creates these narrative twists that make the NBA offseason compelling.
The long-term implications of the 2019 lottery are still playing out today. Zion Williamson in New Orleans, Ja Morant in Memphis, RJ Barrett in New York—these players have shaped their franchises in ways we couldn't fully appreciate back in 2019. The flattened odds system accomplished its goal of reducing the incentive for outright tanking, though I'd argue some teams still engage in "strategic resting" of players late in seasons. What fascinates me is how international scouting and development—much like the system that produced Toroman's point guards—has become increasingly important for teams that consistently draft outside the lottery.
Reflecting on the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds now, with the benefit of hindsight, I'm struck by how dramatically a single evening reshaped multiple franchises. The Pelicans potentially secured their franchise player for the next decade, while the Knicks' consolation prize of RJ Barrett—though talented—hasn't yet produced the transformational impact Zion has in New Orleans. The lottery system remains equal parts fascinating and frustrating, but that's what makes it must-watch television every year. As someone who's followed basketball development across different contexts—from NBA front offices to international systems like Toroman's—I appreciate how these moments underscore that team-building requires both strategic planning and lucky bounces.
