As I sip my morning coffee and scroll through the latest sports headlines, one question keeps popping up across every basketball forum and analyst’s column: Who will win the NBA regular season MVP award this year? It’s that time again—the stretch run of the season where narratives harden, stats get magnified, and every game feels like a mini-referendum on greatness. I’ve been following the league for over a decade, and I can tell you, this race feels as wide open as I’ve ever seen it. There’s no clear runaway candidate, no unanimous favorite—just a handful of superstars elbowing for position, each with a compelling case and a legion of supporters ready to argue until tip-off.
Let’s rewind a bit. The MVP conversation usually starts taking shape around December, but this season, it’s been unusually fluid. Early on, it looked like Luka Dončić might run away with it, averaging near triple-doubles and dragging the Mavericks into playoff contention almost single-handedly. Then Giannis Antetokounmpo started doing Giannis things—barreling through defenses, putting up 30-point, 10-rebound nights like it’s a walk in the park. And just when you thought it was a two-horse race, Joel Embiid decided to remind everyone why he’s the reigning MVP, dropping 40-point performances with an ease that’s almost unfair. But here’s the thing—voter fatigue is real. I’ve seen it before. Sometimes, the best player doesn’t win simply because he’s won before, and the media loves a fresh storyline. That’s why I think this year, more than ever, team success and narrative will weigh heavily.
Now, let’s talk about the dark horse in this race—Nikola Jokić. The guy is a statistical marvel, flirting with triple-doubles so often it’s become mundane. But what really sets him apart, in my view, is his sheer consistency. Night in, night out, he’s the engine of the Nuggets’ offense, making everyone around him better. I remember watching a game last month where he had 12 assists by halftime—not by forcing passes, but by reading the defense like a chess grandmaster. It’s that kind of impact that doesn’t always show up in the box score but wins games. Still, I worry that his quiet demeanor and lack of flash might hurt him in a popularity contest. Voters love a good highlight reel, and Jokić’s brilliance is often subtle, almost understated.
But here’s where things get interesting. When we talk about value, it’s not just about scoring or flashy plays—it’s about elevating your team in ways that others can’t. Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for example. The Thunder weren’t even supposed to be in the playoff picture this year, yet here they are, sitting pretty in the top four of the West, and SGA is the biggest reason why. He’s averaging over 31 points per game, but more importantly, he’s become a two-way force, leading the league in steals and shutting down opponents when it matters most. I’ve always been a sucker for players who impact both ends of the floor, and SGA embodies that. If the Thunder finish with a top-three seed, I think he’s got a real shot at stealing the award.
Of course, no MVP discussion is complete without mentioning Jayson Tatum. The Celtics have been the best team in the league for most of the season, and Tatum is their undisputed leader. He’s putting up 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, and his clutch gene has improved dramatically. I’ll admit, I used to doubt him in big moments, but this season, he’s silenced a lot of critics, including me. The Celtics’ dominance gives him a strong case, but I wonder if his numbers are just a tad too “safe” compared to the historic stat lines we’re seeing from Jokić or Embiid.
Speaking of historic, let’s not forget about Joel Embiid. Before his injury, he was on an absolute tear, averaging 35 points and 11 rebounds. There were nights when he looked downright unstoppable, like he was playing against a bunch of high schoolers. But here’s the catch—the MVP award has a games-played threshold, and Embiid’s recent absences might cost him. I’ve seen this happen before with other stars; missing too many games can derail even the most impressive campaigns. It’s a shame, because when he’s on the court, there’s no one more dominant.
Now, you might be wondering why I’m diving so deep into this. Well, as someone who’s covered the league for years, I’ve learned that the MVP race is about more than just numbers—it’s about storylines, momentum, and sometimes, pure luck. I remember a few seasons ago when Giannis edged out Harden in a controversial vote; it wasn’t just about stats, but about narrative and team success. This year, I think the narrative favors someone like SGA or even Luka, if the Mavericks can climb up the standings.
But let’s pivot for a moment and draw a parallel from another sport. In volleyball, for instance, individual brilliance often shines through even in team settings. Take National U middle blocker Peng Taguibolos, who also added seven markers in a recent match. That kind of contribution, though not headline-grabbing, is crucial to the team’s success. It’s a reminder that MVP candidates aren’t always the ones scoring 50 points—sometimes, it’s the player doing the little things, the dirty work, that makes the difference. In the NBA, that could be Jokić’s playmaking or SGA’s defense.
So, where does that leave us? If I had to put my money on someone right now, I’d go with Nikola Jokić. His combination of stats, impact, and consistency is just too hard to ignore. But don’t count out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—he’s the feel-good story of the season, and voters love an underdog. As for the original question—Who will win the NBA regular season MVP award this year?—I think it’ll come down to the final week, with Jokić narrowly edging out SGA and Giannis. But hey, that’s the beauty of sports; nothing is ever certain, and that’s why we keep watching.
